Class Research Resources and Assignments

Week 8
Review Session -- for Mid-Term Hour Exam
 Lecture for 2nd Hour of Week 8
Slides for 2nd Hour Lecture

The Pace and Scope of Change - Climate & Health (cont)

First Hour

Hour Exam

Nota Bene: Those taking this course as a "distance learning" option will be sent separate instructions by e-mail for completeing the Hour Exam. You will be notified when it is available and how it is to be submitted.
Second Hour
The Pace and Scope of Change
 


    As a dynamic system Earth's climate is always changing. This is because it functions as a whole as a closed materials and open energy system. It is driven by throughput energy from the sun, and it distributes the differiential solar radiation from the tropics to the poles by way of continuous exchanges of energy between oceans, land surfaces and the enveloping atmosphere. Change in any one of these interlinked components necessarily involves further changes in the other components.

    Because the system operates with time-lags and theshold points, change may at times be discontinuous. That is, the evolution of the system may well exhibit abrubt transitions or shifts of state in a non-linear fashion. Scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Massachusetts have been been publishing a series of studies on the elements of the ocean circulation's circulation of heat that they believe may lead to an abrupt climate shift.

    As species-participants in Earth's complex ecosystem we should be concerned about the pace, rate and scope of Earth's changing climate because these changes can affect our personal and collective well being, including our chances for survival. We should begin, therefore, to monitor carefully all evidence of the scale and scope of global climate change, with particular awareness that in non-linear systems change can occur comparatively quickly.

 

 
   One of the major points of concern in recent years has been focused upon the heat transfers which accompany the circulation of ocean currents in the Atlantic ocean. In particular, the possibility of an abrupt change in the course of the gulf-stream has captured the imagination of climate observers. Ocean scientists have been among the first to detail what they think might happen. See, for example the article posted on the web page of the Ocean and Climate Change Institute of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution:

Terrence Joyce and Lloyd Keigwin
 [2003]
 "Abrupt Climate Change:Are We on the Brink of a New Little Ice Age?" Ocean and Climate Change Institution - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
Gagosian, Robert B.
 2003
 "Abrupt Climate Change: Should We Be Worried? - Prepared for a panel on abrupt climate change at the World Economic Forum Davos, Switzerland, January 27, 2003," Ocean and Climate Change Institution - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, (27 January 2003).

The graphic animations in these articles illustrate the physical and thermal flow of surface and deep sea ocean currents. See for example the global ocean circulation patterns they illustrate. The changes they point to in the pattern of the gulf stream's potential circulation illustrate the possibility of abrupt climate change in the northern hemisphere. See the animated model of current thermohaline circulation and that of the potential change if too much fresh water enters the North Atlantic.

 


     Models like these make us attentive to shifts in weather patterns. Weather is different from climate, but shifts in weather patterns -- over time -- can be an index of local or even more broadscale climate change. The weather experience of the Europeans as a whole over the last few years have made them particularly sensitive to the possibility of climate change. Consider the following stories, for example:

Some examples of European weather in 2002...
 
David Willey
  "Italy struggles with drought crisis," BBC World Service, (19 July, 2002, 01:30 GMT 02:30 UK Friday).
 
Brian Barron
  Desert sun punishes dustbowl Sicily," BBC World Service, (23 July, 2002, 19:53 GMT 20:53 UK Tuesday).
 
BBC World Service
2002
 "Europe counts cost of flood damage," BBC World Service, (15 August, 2002, 12:12 GMT 13:12 UK Thursday).
 
Michael Fish
  "European floods: your questions answered," BBC World Service, (15 August, 2002, 15:28 GMT 16:28 UK Thursday).
 
The New Scientist
2003
 "Climatologists give waterworld warning for Earth," The New Scientist, (26 April 2003).
 

And then came the events of the summer of 2003
 
Michael McCarthy
  "Britain bakes, Europe burns. Is this proof of global warming?," The Independent, (5 August 2003).
 
John Lichfield, John
2003
 "Holocaust of the elderly: death toll in French heatwave rises to 10,000," The Independent, (22 August 2003).
 
 
2003
 "Heatwave's warning for future of farming," The New Scientist, (23 August 2003).
 
And since 2003
 
Alex Kirby
2004
 "After the Flood - Extreme Weather Events," Costing The Earth - BBC Radio 4, (16 December 2004).
"European Extreme Weather,"
BBC News Online, (20 March 2005).
 
Meanwhile, elsewhere....
 

Among the world's poor across the globe...

BBC World Service
2006
 "Climate change 'harms world poor'," BBC News Online, (23 March 2006).
 

Australia:

BBC World Service
2002
 "Drought ruins Australian farmers," BBC World Service, (21 July, 2002, 12:09 GMT 13:09 UK Sunday).
 

India Sub-Continent

BBC World Service
2002
 "Drought to cut Indian growth," BBC World Service, (31 July, 2002, 13:00 GMT 14:00 UK Wednesday).
 

Pacific

BBC World Service
2002
 "El Nino blamed for weather chaos," BBC World Service, (11 August, 2002, 09:13 GMT 10:13 UK Sunday).
 

African Sahel

Ning Zeng
2003
 "ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE: Drought in the Sahel," Science, 302 (5647), (7 November 2003) 999-1000.
 

U.S. - Historical Modeling.

Science Daily
2004
 "NASA Explains 'Dust Bowl' Drought," ScienceDaily.Com, (19 March 2004).
 

And now, there is evidence from Greenland of accelerated change:

CBS News
2006
 "Ice Quakes And Global Warming," CBS News Online, (23 March 2006).
Paul Rincon
2006
 "Sea rise could be 'catastrophic'," BBC News Online, (23 March 2006, 23:43 GMT Thursday).
 


Further, there is a "tripple threat" in the Emerging Avian Flu Virus

Changing Climate creates new conditions for both human and avian communities. Water regimes change in cities. Bird/environment interactions change under new climate conditions. Bird/human interactions change in urban areas and in countryside as water regimes change.

Diseases present in avian populations "jump" to pig, cat and human populations. If an strain of avain flu acquires -- through mutation in the human body in the presence of a "normal human flu" virus -- airborne characteristics, large portions of the human community could be threatened with sickness and possible death in a very short period of time.

That is, the scale and scope of relatively small climate changes can trigger system wide health, economic and social crises in a remarkably swift manner. By changing seemingly simple parameters in an ecosystem, say temperature and moisture, it is possible to shift the delicate balence that exists between pathogens and hosts in humans and non-humans alike. The spreading pandemic of H5N1 represents a shift in the host/pathogen relationship among avian populations and isolated mammals, including cases of cats, pigs and dogs.

It remains to be seen if, as the evolution of the H5N1 virus proceeds, it will develop into a form that will be easily transmissable to and between human populations. If this does occur, however, even the slight changes we have observed to date in the distribution and health of wild birds and humans as vector species may well turn out to have an unprecedentedly large impact on global populations, causing upheavals and rapid historical discontinuities simultaneously in many parts of the world. The scope and pace of change could be devastating to entire nations.

Consider, then, the emerging avian flu virus, its global migration, and potential for engendering noticeable social discontinuities.
 


Larger question is this:

Do weather anomalies and weather related bio-geo-chemical changes serve as proof of climate change?

Answer: No, not in themselves.

BUT if there are patterns in the weather anomalies -- over time and over large scale geographic regions -- and there are patterns in the emergence or resurgence of weather-related epizootics, epidemics, or pandemics then there may be some reason to look at what else might be shifting in the entire interconnected climate system. Variation in the climate system can engender changes in the bio-geo-chemical systems throughout the entire world, driving both large scale and abrupt changes in the world as we know it.
Remember the Prospectus -- due on Tuesday, 6 April 2006

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